Three days into the Iran ceasefire deal, Brent crude is approximately $8-9 below its pre-deal level despite a modest Monday recovery toward $85 related to Netanyahu uncertainty. The crude-to-pump pass-through timeline means American consumers should see gasoline price reductions beginning approximately August 25-28. This is three days closer than the projection ONYX published on August 8 — because the deal has held for three days without reversing the oil price benefit.

THE PRECISION TIMELINE

DATE	EXPECTED GAS PRICE DEVELOPMENT
August 7 (Day 1)	Oil drops ~$9/barrel on deal announcement
August 10 (today)	Oil holding ~$8 below pre-deal despite partial recovery
August 14-17	Refineries receiving lower-cost crude; wholesale gasoline prices begin falling
August 21-24	Wholesale gasoline reaches distribution networks
August 25-28	Retail gas station prices reflect $0.25-0.35/gallon reduction for most American drivers
August 31-September 1 (Labor Day)	Gas prices visibly lower than pre-deal levels — peak political visibility
October 6 (Day 60)	Deal expiration unless extended; if deal lapses, gas prices reverse

The precision of this timeline is the important thing for political analysis: August 25-28 is right before Labor Day. The political effect — lower gas prices on Labor Day weekend — is the most visible possible consumer impact of the deal. It is not an accident of timing. It is a consequence of the deal’s timing intersecting with the crude-to-pump pipeline.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

Crude price trajectory is from market data. Crude-to-retail gasoline timeline is from established energy economics (EIA, Dallas Fed). Consumer price reduction estimate ($0.25-0.35/gallon) is based on $8-9 crude decline and historical pass-through ratios.

SOURCES

▸  Oil market data — Brent crude August 7-10 pricing

▸  EIA — crude-to-retail gasoline price transmission economics

▸  Prior ONYX August 7-8 coverage — initial gas price timeline projection