ONYX covered Hurricane Lowell’s Category 3 threat on September 7 the third tropical system of the 2026 summer threatening Hawaii, following Tropical Storms Lala (August) and Moke (August 28-29). Today: Lowell has moved through the area, grazing Maui. ONYX covers the updated status.
WHAT HAPPENED WITH LOWELL
Hurricane Lowell grazed Maui rather than making a direct landfall hit, based on confirmed AP reporting. The difference between a graze and a direct hit for a Category 3 hurricane:
▸ Direct hit: the eyewall — the most intense portion of the storm — passes directly over land; maximum sustained winds, highest storm surge, most intense rainfall
▸ Graze: the storm’s outer bands and some eyewall effects reach the island but the center does not cross land; still produces significant rainfall, some wind damage, and local flooding
A Lowell graze on Maui still represents significant tropical weather for an island whose infrastructure was already stressed by Lala and Moke’s prior damage. Maui is still recovering from the 2023 Lahaina wildfire that killed 100 people; its infrastructure and community resilience are still in recovery.
THE CUMULATIVE HAWAII PICTURE
Hawaii’s 2026 tropical season at September 10:
▸ Lala (August): tropical storm effects, some flooding and infrastructure damage
▸ Moke (August 28-29): compound storm producing additional infrastructure damage assessed in ONYX August 28 arc documentation
▸ Lowell (September 7-10): Category 3 graze on Maui; current damage assessment ongoing
Three tropical systems in one summer season for Hawaii is unusual and produces cumulative infrastructure stress that makes each successive storm more damaging than it would be to intact infrastructure.
Lowell grazed Maui. The island that is still recovering from the 2023 Lahaina wildfire and two prior tropical storms this summer got grazed by a Category 3 hurricane. The graze is better than a direct hit. It is still another storm.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
▸ Lowell damage assessment — Maui damage survey from emergency management
▸ FEMA response — whether the Lowell graze triggers an additional major disaster declaration
▸ Atlantic September 10 peak — Dolly in the Atlantic; statistical peak window ongoing
| CONFIDENCE: HIGH | Hurricane Lowell grazing Maui third tropical threat Hawaii season from AP confirmed reporting. |
SOURCES
▸ AP — Hurricane Lowell Hawaii Maui graze update, September 10, 2026
