A CBS poll shows Chris Talarico and Ken Paxton essentially tied in the Texas Senate race ahead of the midterms. Texas has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988. A tied poll does not mean Talarico wins — it means the race is competitive in a state where that has not been true in a generation. The midterm implications go well beyond Texas.

POLITICS  ·  TEXAS  ·  SENATE  ·  TALARICO  ·  PAXTON  ·  MIDTERMS

AUSTIN, TEXAS — A new CBS News poll shows Democratic candidate Chris Talarico and Republican incumbent Ken Paxton essentially tied in the Texas U.S. Senate race ahead of the midterm elections, according to CBS. A tied race in Texas — one of the most reliably Republican states in national Senate elections since 1988, when Lloyd Bentsen won the last Democratic Senate victory there — would represent a dramatic reshaping of the competitive landscape heading into election day. The poll margins and sample details were not fully specified in the available CBS reporting summary, but the characterization of “essentially tied” came directly from CBS.

Ken Paxton, the Republican incumbent, has been one of the more controversial figures in Texas Republican politics. As state Attorney General, he survived an impeachment attempt by the Texas House in 2023 and was acquitted by the Texas Senate in proceedings that drew significant national attention. His legal troubles and the circumstances of his survival have made him a polarizing figure even within his own party, and have arguably made the Senate race more competitive than it would otherwise be with a less controversial Republican incumbent.

Why Talarico Is Competitive

Chris Talarico, a Democratic state legislator, has built his campaign around economic concerns, healthcare, and what he has characterized as Paxton ethical failures. In a midterm environment where the No Kings movement is actively mobilizing voters, where the Iran war has created economic pressures through energy cost increases, and where Paxton own political history gives opposition research significant material to work with, the conditions for a competitive race are present in a way they rarely have been in Texas.

The CBS poll is a single data point. Texas has produced polling surprises before — Beto O’Rourke’s competitive polling against Ted Cruz in 2018 translated into a 2.6-point loss, not a win. A tied poll in Texas in the final weeks of a midterm campaign means the race is real and resources will flow to it from both parties. It does not guarantee the result that the tied poll implies is possible.

“Texas is in play. Not guaranteed — nothing is guaranteed in Texas — but in play in a way it has not been in this generation.” — Democratic strategist, via CBS

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT

► Both campaigns reallocating resources as the poll puts Texas in the competitive column.

► National Democratic and Republican party committees reassessing Texas spending decisions.

► Additional polling from other firms expected this week to corroborate or contest the CBS result.

► No Kings movement early voting drives in Texas being watched as a potential Talarico turnout driver.

► Final weeks of campaign will see accelerating ad spend, surrogate visits, and ground game investment.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

CBS poll showing essentially tied race confirmed by CBS. Paxton impeachment history confirmed from established Texas political reporting. 1988 as last Democratic Texas Senate win confirmed from electoral record. Talarico campaign context from CBS and established Texas political coverage.

Bias Check
Left-Lean	Center	Right-Lean
Frames tied poll as sign of Texas demographic and political realignment; celebrates Talarico.	Reports the poll, the tied characterization, and the historical context as confirmed.	Frames as outlier poll; notes Texas structural Republican advantage; questions methodology.
Assessment	ONYX presents confirmed poll result and the historical context. Single-poll caveat noted. 2018 Beto comparison cited as precedent for poll-to-result gap.

SOURCES

► CBS — Poll data and Texas Senate race characterization