The US-Iran military conflict entered its seventh month as the UN General Assembly convenes in New York. The arc ONYX has documented began on August 7 with the ceasefire signing — Day 1. Today is Day 46 of the ceasefire arc. Session 3 is four days away. October 6 is 14 days away. The seven-month retrospective is the full conflict’s context for the deal’s significance.
WHAT SEVEN MONTHS PRODUCED — THE CONFIRMED RECORD
ONYX covers the seven-month arc at its confirmed documented record:
▸ February 28: US-Iran military conflict begins
▸ Spring 2026: documented strikes on Iranian positions; Iranian retaliatory strikes; escalation arc building
▸ February-March: Minab school strike kills nearly 200 children and adults (now confirmed as AI targeting failure in senators’ letter September 21)
▸ Spring-Summer: Patriot stockpile falls from 2,300+ to under 850 interceptors
▸ Summer 2026: documented Iranian-linked cyberattacks on US water infrastructure; two Texas-bound tankers boarded by Coast Guard and FBI after cyberattacks
▸ August 7: ceasefire signed — ONYX Day 1
▸ August 31: Session 2, Muscat; Araghchi ‘won’t capitulate’
▸ September 7: Pezeshkian Islamabad signal — first presidential readiness signal
▸ September 9: Patriot stockpile confirmed under 850; Rubio tanker doctrine articulated
▸ September 11: ten-ship assault — largest shipping assault of the war; September 11 25th anniversary
▸ September 12: Houthis seize Mayun Island / Bab el-Mandeb; Saudi East-West pipeline shut down; two chokepoints simultaneously; IRGC Yemen condition named
▸ September 13: Iran strikes Ahmad al-Jaber (Kuwait) and Al Minhad (UAE) simultaneously — dual-base strikes
▸ September 14: Session 3 announced for Muscat; Palestine Action CPS terrorism prosecution
▸ September 16: Supreme Court 7-2 mail-voting ruling; EPA permanent climate authority proposal
▸ September 17: Fed unanimous rate hike citing Hormuz; Trump ‘right after the midterms’
▸ September 18: deal confirmed by Trump, Araghchi, Kremlin; oil fell to $87; Saudi Arabia welcomed
▸ September 19: Khamenei blessed the deal; Kuhestak investigation Air Force IG named; five Miami workers all named
▸ September 21: AI targeting hallucination confirmed to have produced US-China near-miss; senators connect AI failures to Minab strike
THE CONFIRMED HUMAN COST
▸ 18 US service members confirmed dead
▸ Nearly 200 killed in Minab school strike — AI targeting failure now confirmed in senators’ letter
▸ Amir Ali Karimi, 4, and Mohammad Malahi, 16 — killed at Kuhestak wedding; Air Force IG investigating
▸ Eddys Escalona, Yordanis Fuentes, Willian Aniceto, Carlos Morejon, Junior Garcia — five workers killed in Miami cargo crash on the arc’s first documented day
THE CONFIRMED ECONOMIC COST
▸ $37.5 billion: confirmed US military operation costs through documented arc
▸ Oil above $100 per barrel for weeks before deal; fell to $87 on deal announcement
▸ Federal Reserve unanimous rate hike September 17 — first since 2023 — citing Hormuz
▸ ECB rate hike September 13 citing same cause
▸ Saudi crude at 30-year low (6 million bpd) following East-West pipeline shutdown
WHERE IT STANDS NOW
Day 46 of the ceasefire arc. The deal is confirmed and Khamenei-blessed. Session 3 is four days away. October 6 is 14 days away. The 90-day extension runs to approximately January 4, 2027. Bab el-Mandeb remains in Houthi control. The parallel Saudi-Houthi track has not yet produced a Mayun withdrawal. The Air Force IG investigation has 51 days remaining toward its November 12 target. The arc continues.
Seven months. 18 Americans dead. Nearly 200 killed in Minab. Two children killed at a wedding in Kuhestak. A deal announced and Khamenei-blessed. Session 3 in four days. October 6 in fourteen days. January 4, 2027 is the new horizon. The arc has documented 46 of those days. The names remain in the footer. The documentation continues.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
▸ Session 3 September 26 — 4 days
▸ October 6 — 14 days; now a formalization date under the deal
▸ January 4, 2027 — the 90-day extension’s new horizon
▸ Air Force IG — 51 days to November 12 target
| CONFIDENCE: HIGH | Seven-month Iran war arc from ONYX February 28 – September 22, 2026 cumulative documentation. |
SOURCES
▸ ONYX February 28 – September 22, 2026 — seven-month Iran war cumulative documentation
