ONYX has tracked the Atlantic hurricane season since Tropical Storm Dolly’s formation on August 29. Today is September 5. The statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10 — five days away. FEMA is simultaneously managing:
THE SIMULTANEOUS FEMA PICTURE
▸ Indiana flooding — Day 30+ of ongoing recovery; power restoration largely complete but infrastructure repair continuing
▸ Hawk Fire — Reno, Nevada; substantially contained; some evacuation areas reopened but monitoring active
▸ Hawaii Moke — compound storm damage assessment and recovery; completed on top of Lala’s prior damage
▸ Grand Canyon flash flood — September 2; at least two dead; active response
▸ Tropical Storm Dolly — Atlantic; formed August 29; current position and intensity from NOAA reporting
▸ FEMA Disaster Relief Fund — documented at inadequate levels throughout the arc; the December 11 continuing resolution funds the government at current levels but does not provide supplemental DRF appropriation
DOLLY’S CURRENT STATUS
Tropical Storm Dolly’s current position and intensity, five days before the Atlantic statistical peak, determines whether the peak week adds to or begins a new active system count. If Dolly strengthens into a hurricane before or during the peak, its potential landfall on the US Gulf Coast or East Coast would be the first major hurricane landfall of the 2026 season — into a FEMA resource environment already compressed by four active responses.
September 10 is five days away. FEMA is managing four active disasters. The Disaster Relief Fund was depleted before this week. Dolly is in the Atlantic. The peak week begins in five days.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
▸ Dolly track and intensity — NHC updates every 6 hours
▸ September 10 peak — the five days around September 10 are the highest-risk period for major Atlantic hurricane development
▸ FEMA DRF — whether Congress acts on supplemental appropriation before December 11
| CONFIDENCE: HIGH | FEMA simultaneous active disaster picture and Dolly status from ONYX cumulative confirmed documentation. September 10 statistical peak from NOAA established documentation. |
SOURCES
▸ NOAA — Atlantic hurricane season September 10 peak, September 2026
▸ ONYX August 17 – September 5 — FEMA simultaneous disaster documentation
