Day 43. Seventeen Days to October 6. Khamenei Blessed the Deal. Here’s the Full Updated Picture.
▸ Deal: confirmed September 18 by Trump, Araghchi, and the Kremlin; Khamenei blessed September 19 ▸ Terms emerging: 90-day extension; […]
The Kuhestak Investigation Has a Body and a Timeline. Here’s What the Air Force IG’s Mandate Actually Means.
ONYX has carried ‘Kuhestak: Amir Ali Karimi, 4 · Mohammad Malahi, 16’ in every footer since September 4. Vance announced
The USPS Ballot Portal Arc Has Multiple Updates. Here’s Where Each Thread Stands with 45 Days to Midterms.
USPS is actively implementing compliance with the 7-2 ruling. The voter list submission requirement and the barcode envelope design standards
The Fed Raised Rates Because of Hormuz. Now That Oil Is at $87, It May Not Raise Them Again.
Fed Chairman Warsh’s statement that the Fed will ‘monitor closely’ before deciding on a second rate hike is standard central
Day 42. The Deal Is Confirmed. October 6 Is 18 Days Away. January 4 Is the New Horizon. Here’s the Full Probability Update.
▸ Trump: ‘We have made a deal with Iran. A very powerful deal for both parties.’ ▸ Araghchi confirmed Iran
The World’s Other Crises Are Still Running While the Deal Was Announced. Here’s the Status Check.
ONYX has tracked the arc’s secondary crises alongside the Iran war since August 7. Deal day does not end those
European Allies Welcomed the Deal. Here’s the Alliance Context That Makes That Welcome Complicated.
European allied governments formally welcomed the US-Iran deal announcement, citing the prospect of reduced energy market disruption and reduced risk
Gaza Phase 1 Is Day 22. The Deal Changes the Regional Environment. Here’s What That Means for Phase 2.
Gaza Phase 1 is on Day 22. Hostage releases continue on schedule. Hamas compliance: no formal failure documented through Day
The Kremlin Confirmed the Deal Before Iran Did. Here’s What That Tells Us About Russia’s Role.
The arc’s documented confirmation sequence: Trump announced the deal. The Kremlin confirmed an agreement in principle. Araghchi then confirmed Iran’s
The Deal Doesn’t Cover the Houthis. Here’s Why Bab el-Mandeb Is Still the Arc’s Most Important Open Question.
The US-Iran 90-day deal extension governs US-Iran bilateral military activity and Iranian enrichment. It extends the Hormuz commercial transit framework.