CENTCOM stated on X: ‘ZERO ships have passed through the blockade without U.S. forces allowing it’ over the past 60 days. It confirmed destroying 10 more Iranian tankers and redirecting 100 commercial vessels. The claim is a 100% effectiveness assertion: every ship that has passed has done so only with US permission.

THE CRITICAL THREATS ASSESSMENT  

The Critical Threats Project, an independent defense analysis organization, assesses that Iran retains ‘some capacity to disrupt shipping through the southern route’ despite operational constraints. This is not a claim that Iran is successfully disrupting shipping at scale. It is an assessment that Iran’s capacity to do so has not been fully eliminated.

THE GAP  

Two different claims about the same operational reality:

▸  CENTCOM: ZERO unauthorized ship transits in 60 days; full control

▸  Critical Threats Project: Iran retains some disruption capacity

These claims are not necessarily in contradiction. Iran can retain the capacity to disrupt shipping while not currently doing so at scale. The 60-day CENTCOM record could be accurate while Iran still holds reserve capacity. ONYX covers both assessments at their confirmed level and names the gap between them as a documented difference in how the blockade’s effectiveness is characterized.

CENTCOM says zero ships passed without permission. Critical Threats says Iran still has some capacity. Both things can be true: you can have capacity you aren’t currently using. The gap between military effectiveness claims and independent capability assessments is documented. ONYX covers both.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

CENTCOM X ‘ZERO ships blockade without US forces allowing’ 10 tankers destroyed, 100 commercial vessels redirected 60 days, Critical Threats Project Iran ‘some capacity to disrupt shipping southern route’ despite constraints from confirmed reporting.

SOURCES

▸  CENTCOM / Critical Threats Project — blockade effectiveness gap September 17, 2026