ONYX has tracked the Nepal-China glacier disaster since August 30. Day 15. The American accounting is near-complete. The dam has held through 15 days of monitoring. The hydropower plants remain offline. The search and rescue phase has ended; the recovery and reconstruction phase has begun.

THE DAY 15 STATUS  

▸  Death toll: the final confirmed count as of Day 15 from confirmed reporting

▸  American accounting: State Department consular accounting of the approximately 50 Americans in the danger zone is near-complete; the three confirmed rescues (Anjana Raja, Pattabiraman Venkatesan, third unnamed) remain the confirmed US survivors; any additional American casualties are from confirmed reporting

▸  Dam: the natural dam has held through 15 days; the monsoon season’s most dangerous rain period is nearing its statistical end for the year

▸  Hydropower: four plants, 211 megawatts, remain offline; repair assessments ongoing; the economic impact on Nepal’s grid continues

THE EARLY WARNING ACCOUNTABILITY  

ONYX established on August 30 and confirmed on September 2 that the disaster’s early warning system had been flagged as inadequate before the flood, and that a prior 2025 Bhote Koshi disaster had produced specific warnings that were not acted on. The school principal who evacuated 900 students to safety (September 2) did so without a formal warning system — through individual situational awareness. At Day 15, the accountability question remains: will this disaster produce the early warning investment that the 2025 disaster flagged and did not receive?

Day 15. The dam is holding. The hydropower is still offline. The search is over. The dead are counted. The early warning system that did not warn them is still the same early warning system. The 900 students the principal saved had a principal. Not everyone had a principal.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT  

▸  Final human accounting — when all missing persons are formally resolved

▸  Early warning investment — whether Nepal and the international community fund the monitoring the disaster required

▸  Hydropower restoration — timeline for the 211 megawatts

▸  ONYX coverage — sustained through reconstruction phase

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

Nepal glacier Day 15 dam stable hydropower offline from ONYX cumulative documentation.

SOURCES

▸  ONYX August 30 – September 10 — Nepal glacier 15-day documentation