Today, August 23, is Day 16 of the Iran ceasefire deal. ONYX has documented every day of this deal from its announcement on August 7. This article compiles the complete tracking record as a reference document for readers who want the full picture.
THE MILESTONES
▸ August 7 (Day 1): ceasefire signed; Oman mediation; 60-day Hormuz framework; 20% enrichment cap; IAEA monitoring; 90-day nuclear dialogue deadline (~November 5); five failure modes identified (Israeli strike HIGH, enrichment violation, Iranian domestic collapse, Gulf proxy incident, 60-day cliff)
▸ August 8 (Day 2): Germany-Netherlands emergency Patriot to Ukraine announced; Lloyd’s war-risk premiums begin formal decline
▸ August 11 (Day 5): Colombia earthquake 7.4 Richter (concurrent global crisis)
▸ August 12 (Day 6): Houthi Jazan refinery strike (Gulf proxy incident failure mode: active but managed)
▸ August 14 (Day 8): First nuclear dialogue session, Muscat; Araghchi leads; parallel-track compromise; second session committed
▸ August 16 (Day 10): SPR below 300M barrels documented; gas prices at $0.20 floor projection revised to Aug 20-22
▸ August 17 (Day 11): ONYX corrects ceasefire expiration claim in research brief; deal operational; Ben Gvir no formal ultimatum through Day 11
▸ August 18 (Day 12): USS Lincoln heading home; Trump drill reduction (NK rejects Aug 21); ‘economic warfare’ announced Aug 20
▸ August 19-20 (Days 13-14): IRGC backchannel 72-hour contradiction; Kushner Oman threat; UAE trade suspension; 3% oil spike from economic warfare
▸ August 21 (Day 15): NK fires 10 missiles; gas price floor at $0.28-0.32
▸ August 22 (Day 16): Session 2 formally scheduled; Ben Gvir zero enrichment demand; Gaza revised framework; Hamas yes pending
▸ August 23 (Day 16): Session 2 date announced (September 1); Zelenskyy-Putin Turkey meeting; Hamas formally accepts Gaza framework; Ben Gvir coalition ultimatum issued
THE NUMBERS AT DAY 16
▸ Hormuz vessel count peak: 70-80/day (pre-war baseline: 138/day)
▸ Gas price reduction: $0.28-0.32 at pump below Hormuz-closure peak (original projection: $0.28-0.35)
▸ Oil price Brent: approximately $7-8 below pre-deal (partially offset by 3% economic warfare spike)
▸ IAEA monitoring: 16 days of confirmed below-20% enrichment, zero violations
▸ Days to October 6 (Day 60): 43
▸ Session 2: September 1, Muscat
▸ Nuclear dialogue 90-day deadline: ~November 5
▸ SPR: below 300M barrels (war cost documented)
Sixteen days. The gas prices are at the floor. Session 2 is 9 days away. The deal worked. The world around it got more complicated. Both things are true on Day 16.
| CONFIDENCE: HIGH | All arc data points are from ONYX cumulative production documentation August 7-23. |
SOURCES
▸ ONYX August 7-23 — complete Iran ceasefire deal tracking documentation
