▸ Trump: ‘We have made a deal with Iran. A very powerful deal for both parties.’
▸ Araghchi confirmed Iran agreed
▸ Kremlin confirmed agreement in principle
▸ Emerging terms: 90-day extension, enrichment cap maintained, Hormuz extended, parallel Houthi track in annex
▸ Session 3: September 26, Muscat — 8 days away
▸ Oil: fell from $100+ to $87 — a $13 single-session decline
▸ Saudi Arabia welcomed deal, named Bab el-Mandeb as a condition
▸ IEA: Saudi output can recover to 8 million bpd in 90 days if pipeline restored
▸ Israel: not a party; security interests paramount; will evaluate
▸ China: welcomed; called itself a stabilizing force
▸ Houthis: still control Mayun Island; on a parallel track, not the main deal
▸ New expiration: approximately January 4, 2027
THE UPDATED PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT
▸ Ceasefire extended with modified terms: LIKELY — the 90-day extension framework is confirmed in principle; Session 3 September 26 formalizes; this is now the dominant probability
▸ Ceasefire extended with full terms: POSSIBLE — if Session 3 produces comprehensive terms covering all documented failure modes
▸ Ceasefire expires without replacement: LOW — significantly reduced from LIKELY (September 17) by today’s deal confirmation
▸ Ceasefire collapses before October 6: LOW — deal confirmation reduces collapse risk; Ghalibaf declaration and vessel fire remain documented, but deal creates de-escalatory context
THE NEW ARC HORIZON
The arc’s tracking changes from October 6 to January 4, 2027. The 90-day extension creates a new horizon. ONYX will continue documenting:
▸ Session 3 September 26 formalization
▸ Whether the parallel Saudi-Houthi track produces a Bab el-Mandeb resolution
▸ Whether the 90-day extension produces the conditions for a permanent framework before January 4
▸ The Kuhestak investigation — announced; no body or timeline; the arc does not close on a deal
▸ The five Miami workers — four named; one pending
▸ The 18 US dead — in the footer until they are formally acknowledged
Day 42. The deal is confirmed. Oil fell $13. October 6 is now a formalization date, not a cliff. January 4, 2027 is the new horizon. The arc has documented 42 days to get here. The names in the footer remain. The accountability arcs that are not about the Iran deal — Kuhestak, the Miami workers, the 18 dead — continue with the same precision as the day they opened.
THE FOOTER, DAY 42
Day 42 · 18 Days to October 6 · Deal Confirmed — Terms Pending · Session 3: September 26 — Muscat · Kuhestak: Amir Ali Karimi, 4 · Mohammad Malahi, 16 · Investigation Announced — No Body or Timeline · 18 US Dead · 46 Days to Midterms.
The deal is in the footer. The names remain. The accountability arcs continue. The arc continues.
| CONFIDENCE: HIGH | All items from ONYX September 18, 2026 documentation. Probability assessment is ONYX editorial analysis based on 42-day confirmed factual record. |
SOURCES
▸ ONYX August 7 – September 18, 2026 — 42-day cumulative documentation
