▸  Deal: confirmed September 18 by Trump, Araghchi, and the Kremlin; Khamenei blessed September 19

▸  Terms emerging: 90-day extension; enrichment cap 20%; Hormuz extended; tanker doctrine paused; parallel Houthi track in annex

▸  Session 3: September 26, Muscat — 7 days away

▸  Hormuz: commercial transit ongoing; tanker doctrine paused

▸  Bab el-Mandeb: Houthi control of Mayun Island; parallel Saudi-Houthi track referenced in annex

▸  Saudi East-West pipeline: shutdown September 12; restoration not yet confirmed

▸  IAEA: Active; below 20% enrichment; no violations

▸  October 6: 17 DAYS AWAY

▸  January 4, 2027: the new 90-day horizon

THE PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT — UPDATED FOR KHAMENEI  

▸  Ceasefire extended with modified terms: VERY LIKELY — Khamenei’s blessing elevates this from LIKELY to VERY LIKELY; the constitutional authority has been applied

▸  Ceasefire extended with full terms: POSSIBLE — if Session 3 addresses IRGC grievances, including sanction relief and the Yemen condition

▸  Ceasefire expires without replacement: VERY LOW — further reduced by Khamenei’s blessing

▸  Ceasefire collapses before October 6: VERY LOW — Khamenei blessing and tanker doctrine pause both reduce collapse risk

THE 7-DAY WINDOW  

Seven days to Session 3 on September 26. Seventeen days to October 6. The specific remaining risks:

▸  IRGC operational compliance — whether any IRGC element violates the tanker doctrine pause before Session 3

▸  Ghalibaf’s proportionate responses declaration — whether it produces any post-blessing incident

▸  Bab el-Mandeb — unchanged; the parallel track has not yet produced Mayun withdrawal

▸  Session 3 formal text — whether the 90-day extension text addresses IRGC grievances

Day 43. Khamenei blessed the deal. The IRGC hardliners are unhappy but compliant. The tanker doctrine is paused. Session 3 is 7 days away. October 6 is 17 days away. The arc has moved from ‘Session 3: UNKNOWN’ on August 7 to ‘Khamenei has blessed the 90-day extension’ on September 19. 43 days. That is the specific journey the documentation records.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT  

▸  Session 3 September 26 — formal text; IRGC grievances addressed or not; Saudi-Houthi parallel track status

▸  October 6 — now more likely to be a formalization date than an expiration cliff

▸  January 4, 2027 — the new horizon

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

Day 43: Khamenei blessing from ONYX; 43-day cumulative documentation and September 19 confirmed reporting.

SOURCES

▸  ONYX August 7 – September 19 — 43-day cumulative Iran deal documentation